{"id":4096,"date":"2020-05-01T08:48:48","date_gmt":"2020-05-01T15:48:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/?p=4096"},"modified":"2020-05-01T08:48:48","modified_gmt":"2020-05-01T15:48:48","slug":"a-change-of-pace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/a-change-of-pace\/","title":{"rendered":"A Change of Pace"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Gilead’s remdesivir treats the novel coronavirus<\/h4>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

As we turn the page on another month, have you noticed that we\u2019re entering a new phase in this global pandemic?\u00a0<\/p>\n

The panic to deal with the novel coronavirus, as a threat to health and life, seems to have dissipated.\u00a0 The curve<\/a> has rolled and we\u2019re sixteen days on the other side of the peak.\u00a0 The health care system has gained some level of control over the virus outbreak.\u00a0 Health policy administrators are rolling out various measures to further contain it and prevent another spike in infections.\u00a0 Yet, we continue to wait on increased testing, a contact tracing system, treatments and a vaccine.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve become somewhat accustomed to spending most of our time at home. \u00a0We\u2019ve developed new routines to maintain our physical and mental health.\u00a0 When we do venture out, we\u2019ve adapted to the new physical distancing measures we find wherever we go.\u00a0 We know that we\u2019ll soon be required to wear face masks in public.<\/p>\n

Some states are slowly beginning to relax the strict measures which were invoked to contain this highly contagious virus.\u00a0 Some businesses are reopening, and workers in certain industries are being allowed to return to work.\u00a0 Some public places in some states are becoming accessible.
\n\u00a0
\nCOVID-19 Numbers<\/strong>
\nGlobally, across 187 countries, there have been over 3.3 million confirmed cases and nearly 234,000 deaths.\u00a0 In the US, nearly 1.1 million have been infected and almost 64,000 have perished.<\/p>\n

No More White House Briefings<\/strong>
\nIt appears that President Trump has abandoned the daily press briefings which featured the White House Coronavirus Task Force.\u00a0 This is another example of how the pace of the pandemic is changing.\u00a0 For weeks the team assembled to confront Covid-19 provided daily updates on the massive effort, which spanned virtually every department of the government.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Markets<\/strong>
\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average ended yesterday down 288 points, or 1.17%.\u00a0 The S&P 500\u00a0Index was down 27 points, or 0.92%.\u00a0 The Dow fell 13% in March, but rose 13.7 % in April.\u00a0 The S&P 500 Index fell 12.5% in March, and rose 15.3 % in April.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

April produced of the strongest stock market performances in history. But it followed a steep decline that began in late February as the virus went from a distant concern to a full-blown pandemic.\u00a0 The market bottomed out on March 25.\u00a0 The Dow is still down 14.7% year-to-date and the S&P 500 Index is down 9.6% for the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Employment<\/strong>
\nToday is International Worker\u2019s Day and, as is the annual tradition, millions of workers across the globe will be protesting their pay and working conditions.\u00a0 However, the protests this year will undoubtedly be stronger, because millions of laborers are required to work in conditions that have changed from unsafe to life-threatening.\u00a0 Workers in fields and factories around the world cannot protect themselves from the reach of the virus.\u00a0 Many of these workers put food on our tables.<\/p>\n

Never before have so many jobs either been lost or put in jeopardy.\u00a0 Yesterday, the Labor Department released numbers for the week of April 24.\u00a0 Another 3.8 million Americans filed for state unemployment benefits.\u00a0 This brings the six-week total to 30.8 million.<\/p>\n

Globally, the United Nations projects that over 300 million will lose their jobs in the second quarter of this year.\u00a0 In addition, the UN believes another 1.6 billion workers in the world\u2019s \u201cinformal economy\u201d could lose their jobs.\u00a0 There is no precedent for this loss of employment.<\/p>\n

The Economy<\/strong>
\nAs we mentioned earlier this week, US gross national product (GDP) fell by 4.8% (annualized) in the second quarter.\u00a0 IHS Markit Research projects that GDP will fall by 37% in the second quarter.\u00a0 If so, it will be the biggest drop since 1947, as the US economy down-shifted after World War II.<\/p>\n

As we noted previously, the consumer drives the American economy.\u00a0 Personal consumption fell by 7.6% in the first quarter.\u00a0 Spending across all major categories fell.\u00a0 Saving, however, increased from 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 9.6% in the first quarter of this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve Monetary Intervention<\/strong>
\nThe Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented action to shore up the US economy.\u00a0 It reduced interest rates twice in March, bringing them to just above zero (0-0.25%).\u00a0 The Fed has also injected $2 trillion into the economy by purchasing Treasury bonds and mortgage securities.\u00a0 It has announced nine lending programs to be backed with another $2 trillion.\u00a0 The Fed\u2019s balance sheet is at a record $6.6 trillion.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell urged Congress this week to deliver more to support the US economy.\u00a0Powell brushed aside concerns about the scale of the federal government\u2019s intervention and has essentially said that the Federal Reserve and the Congress need to do whatever is required to support the economy.<\/p>\n

Federal Fiscal Emergency Funding<\/strong>
\nCongress has provided several relief packages.\u00a0 The first phase was the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act, passed on March 6, 2020. It provided $8.3 billion in emergency funding to combat the spread of the coronavirus and counter the pandemic in America.<\/p>\n

The second phase was the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, enacted March 18, 2020.\u00a0 It provided $104 billion for paid sick leave and unemployment benefits for workers and families.<\/p>\n

The third phase was the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), which was signed by the President on March 27, 2020.\u00a0 It provides $2 trillion for individuals, public health, state and local governments, small business and large corporations.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We will likely see additional action by Congress to rescue states and local governments, which have been hard hit by Covid-19. \u00a0The Trump Administration is also lobbying Congress for a massive infrastructure package that will help rebuild roads, bridges and highways.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A Promising Drug<\/strong>
\nThe recent news about the use of remdesivir as a treatment for Covid-19 was well-received by health experts and the markets.\u00a0 The drug, which is produced by Gilead Sciences, appears to reduce the number of days that those with the virus spend in the hospital.\u00a0 While the drug seems to be helpful, we really need more effective treatment and, of course, a vaccine.<\/p>\n

Testing Remains Disorganized<\/strong>
\nWe continue to address the subject of testing, because it is the issue.\u00a0 Until we can test large numbers of our population, we won\u2019t be able to identify those who have the coronavirus.\u00a0 We\u2019re beginning to understand that our existing testing capacity is underutilized, because it is disorganized.\u00a0 Testing is done in private, public and academic facilities.\u00a0\u00a0 The federal government needs to step in.\u00a0 The President should use the Defense Production Act to organize, coordinate and direct testing.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We Remain Optimistic<\/strong>
\nThe pace of the pandemic has shifted from a sprint to a marathon.\u00a0 We expect that the race will be long and hard on many levels.\u00a0 But we remain highly optimistic that America will win.\u00a0\u00a0 We will corral this virus.\u00a0 We will create a society in which we are safe.\u00a0 The economy will recover. \u00a0The stock market will bounce back.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Springwater\u2019s Correspondence<\/strong>
\nWe have been writing to you every day throughout the work week since this crisis began many weeks ago.\u00a0 Many of you have told us that you value these communications.\u00a0 We appreciate your feedback.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Beginning today, May 1, we\u2019re transitioning to an every-other-work day schedule.\u00a0 We will, of course, write more frequently if the pace of the pandemic accelerates again, or if we feel a need to correspond more urgently.<\/p>\n

Keep the faith, be safe and stay healthy.<\/p>\n

PLEASE SEE<\/strong> important disclosure information at www.springwaterwealth.com\/blog-disclosure\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gilead’s remdesivir treats the novel coronavirus As we turn the page on another month, have you noticed that we\u2019re entering a new phase in this global pandemic?\u00a0 The panic to deal with the novel coronavirus, as a threat to health and life, seems to have dissipated.\u00a0 The curve has rolled and we\u2019re sixteen days on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_mi_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5,6,11],"tags":[158,50,66,69,87,107,140],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4096"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4096"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4096\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/springwaterwealth.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}